Box 22, Folder 2, Document 43

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The crisis of our cities is first of all the segregation of
race and income. There is no urban solution of any validity that
does not deal directly with the questions posed by this segregation.

The facts are these: 23% of the total population of our
central cities is Negro, and 35% of these Negroes have incomes in
the poverty range. Within five years, assuming present population
trends and even allowing for current levels of ameliorative public
programs, the proportion of Negroes to central city population will
rise to 28%, with the same percentage as today remaining in poverty.
By 1978, both proportions will be 35%. By 1983, our central cities
population Will be 44% Negro, nearly two-fifths of them poor.

These are percentages of total central city population. But

by 1973, at least 10 of our major cities will be predominantly Negro;

by 1983, at least 20, including Chicago, Philadelphia, Cleveland,
Detroit (etc.).

To repeat, these projections show what will happen if present
population trends continue and current governmental policies and
levels of spending remain in force.

To alter these projections significantly, quantum leaps will
have to be taken in public policy and levels of spending. For

example, if the size of the Negro population of central cities is

to remain what it is approximately 600,000 Negroes each year must
move into predominantly white suburbs. That figure would represent
from 10-15 times the present rate of Negro out migration.

Again, if the proportion of Negroes in poverty is to be reduced
to the general poverty rate of the total population, we estimate the
costs of that enrichment (projecting current per capita costs of
special housing, educational, employment training and other programs)
at $ annually over a year period.

If the nation were to decide to equalize both the Negro's
settlement pattern and his incidence of poverty, our best estimate
of total costs would be $ per year over a year

These may seem staggering figures. What is staggering to us

is that urban policy has been developed in this country without

attempting these calculations, yet fostering the illusion that one

or the other -- or both -- of the two alternatives, enrichment and
dispersion, were somehow being accomplished and at scale.

The fact is that both the rate of enrichment and the rate of
dispersion are lagging; and the segragation of race and income in
our great metropolitan areas is outstripping whatever we are now
doing to offset it.

We of the Task Force deplore the segregation that is taking
place; and if the choice were ours, we would pay the price of simul-
taneously reducing the poverty and concentration rates of the Negro
population. The prospect of Negro dominance of our central cities

we cannot regard with equanimity, although we are almost persuaded

otherwise by some compelling arguments (a) that the transition is

likely to be much more moderate than alarmists might portray; and

(b) that the coming of Negroes to political power might well provide

the psychological lift that community has long been awaiting. What
we still regard with distaste is the freezing of racial and class
distinctions into political boundary lines; and what we fear is even
the remotest chance of escalating present frictions into guerrilla
and even civil war.

We therefore submit the following recommendations and alter-

native courses of action:

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